So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend. Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment and personal income growth. In the US, these have fallen since 1982, but have currently hit a new low point. The counter-argument is that the current expansion has not yet ended as the economy is not in a recession, but the trend is poor so far. Since 2009, total employment has grown by a mere 0.34% which makes it the clearest example of a jobless recovery in the US since WWII.
One of our main structural themes in the US post-crisis is for shorter and shallower business cycles due to lower trend growth and a higher volatility of key economic indicators.
In our view, this is one of the main economic effects from the need to deleverage. Taken together, these two trends also mean the economy is likely to experience more frequent (but also likely shorter) periods of contraction (recessions), and subsequent, more fleeting, expansions.