Short Term Bounce in UK Industrial Production does not Negate Long Term Negative Trend

Some cheer was reported when UK industrial production rebounded a stronger than expected 2.9% MoM in July. Manufacturing output also rose a stronger than expected 3.2% MoM. The longer-term picture, however, remains bleak.

IP is declining YoY, and is still about 12% off where it was before the financial crisis. IP growth in the UK has struggled to remain positive for most of the last decade. Indeed, average growth over the last 20 years has barely been positive and at this rate it will be an inordinate amount of time before IP can begin to recover materially.

A slow, secular shift away from industrial production in the UK was given a cliff-edge shove in the financial crisis. No sustainable recovery is likely to be seen for a long time as growth – across all sectors – is held back by the huge private and public sector debt weighing the UK economy down.