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Monthly Archives: January 2013 - 9 posts found

Europe’s Economy Stabilises, But Watch The Sting In The Tail

European economies showed further signs of stabilization in January with flash PMIs registering continued strengthening on most fronts (this week will see a number of actual PMI readings). The only noteworthy exception was France where conditions deteriorated further, with the composite reading falling to 42.6 (from 44.7 in December) and hence showing a sharp contraction. At the other end of the scale was Germany, where the composite showed 53.6 (up from 50.3 in December), an evidently positive surge in activity.


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Sector Overview – 1/23

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Continuing the ongoing trend, all US sectors but Telecom look to be overbought and the conditions merit caution.


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Global Market Overview – 1/22

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Global risk assets continue to look overbought, as we mentioned in our previous post. The current environment continues to merit caution for long biased traders.


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Spain – It’s The Real Economy Stupid!

As foreseen in recent updates on Spain, the market for SGBs remains calm and spreads across the maturity horizon are tightening. Last week Spanish ten year yields fell below the 5% mark for the first time since March last year, while two year yields are now hugging the 2% threshold. During the week the Spanish debt agency sold 5.8 billion euros worth of bonds at yields which were significantly down over recent levels across all maturities.


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US Sector & Global Overview – 1/14

As we pointed out last week, global risk assets generally look overbought and are due a short term correction. It is impossible to pick bottoms and tops, but from the point of view of tactical trading, the current environment merits…


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Lower US Unemployment Masks Structural Changes in Labor Market

With the Fed now targeting unemployment, the market is now understandably even more focused on US labour market releases.


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Global Export and Manufacturing Growth Picking Up

The OECD diffusion index leads our global export index by about 6-9 months, and even if it is turning down into mid-2013, it suggests that better times are ahead for global export activity (upper chart). Indeed, we are now seeing…


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Global Equity RSI and Moving Average Divergences

Technically global equity markets now look overbought across the board with 14 day RSI readings above 60 for all major stock markets. Many RSIs are above 70. This suggests that over-performing markets such as the Nikkei and the DAX may…


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Money For Nothing – 2013 Themes and Trades

MACRO AND INVESTMENT THEMES


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