Global Export and Manufacturing Growth Picking Up

The OECD diffusion index leads our global export index by about 6-9 months, and even if it is turning down into mid-2013, it suggests that better times are ahead for global export activity (upper chart). Indeed, we are now seeing clear signs of a pick-up in global export activity measured by our aggregate global export index, and more upside is ahead as EM economies in particular are due further cyclical upside.

Export growth in most countries has picked up with momentum in EM Asia (Thailand, Malaysia and China), Australia and even Germany notably picking up. Export growth in Japan and Brazil, however, continues to lag.

The positive picture on global exports is confirmed by the upturn in the global manufacturing index (lower chart).