The aggregate real global policy rate is still firmly negative due to the commitment to low interest rates in the major G4 economies, but we are seeing notable divergence between economies. The UK remains a textbook example of stagflation while real rates also differ markedly between emerging economies.
While a good deal of investor attention has been focused on the US of late, in the process relegating the EU debt crisis into clear second place, CEE economies have been largely subjected to benign neglect. Arguably this is a mistake, since a lot can be learnt from following the evolution of these economies, many of which are undergoing a rapid transition from being emerging prospects to over-mature stars of yesteryear. The unique demographics which are to be found in the region make them a fascinating laboratory for what might happen in other parts of the world, most notably China, as we move into the 2020s.
South Korea is still being touted as an emerging market, but this is increasingly becoming a misnomer. The country’s demographics are now increasingly negative and the South Korean society is in the throes of a long and painful economic and demographic transition towards an export dependent economy.
In principle, a negative current account should not be a problem for Indonesia given the economy’s strong demographic profile, but the slump in external demand will expose the strong credit growth in the domestic economy