Category Archives: Japan - 7 posts found

Anti-QE in Japan

Last week’s BoJ meeting did not meet expectations of trying to soothe the Japanese bond market.  Yields have shot up, with 10y yields 50% higher in May as of this morning, largely a consequence of the BoJ succeeding in raising…


Read more

Where Japan Rate Vol Leads, Others Follow

Volatility in general is still falling, with both equity and commodity volatility lower than their 2005/06 trough.  However, we are seeing signs of life in interest rate volatility.  US rate volatility has recently pipped up, and this has been led…


Read more

The Yen Also Rises

The Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges has a short a story about two lifelong rivals, villains to the core, who are finally captured by the authorities and sentenced to death for their misdemeanors. The officer in charge of the execution, a gambling man himself, challenges them to one final act of mutual defiance. He proposes they should have their throats slit, and then race to see who can get the farthest.


Read more

The Foolproof Way To Fight Deflation or the Road to Ruin?

The Euro is making headlines again, this time not due to its possible imminent disappearance as a currency but rather as a result of what many regard as its undue strength. Last week’s press briefing comments by ECB President Mario Draghi to the effect that “The exchange rate is not a policy target but it is important for growth and price stability,” had put markets on their guard that the central bank was taking note of recent currency movements, and especially those vis-à-vis the Japanese yen.


Read more

Japan Edges Towards the Cliff

The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are more than likely to be followed by another set of negative readings for Q4


Read more

Austerity in the Developed World is not working, but it is necessary

Fiscal austerity in the developed world represents a paradox. On one hand, it is necessary as governments had already borrowed too much going into the crisis and can thus no longer continue to lever up to compensate for private deleveraging. On the other hand, the objective of fiscal austerity is to stabilise exploding government debt to GDP ratios, but this is proving difficult as depressing government spending leads to a higher decline in GDP relative to the reduction in the gross debt level.


Read more

Japan’s economy is running out of time and growth

130212_Japan GDP

The recent Q4-12 GDP print in Japan underscores the mounting pressure on BOJ and Ministry of Finance officials to act decisively on the ongoing strength of the Yen. Japan’s economy slumped to a  2.9% contraction on the year (nominal GDP,…


Read more