Strong equity returns usually on offer in December

December is indeed a good month to be long the stock market especially in Decembers that follow strong annual returns. We have seen a couple of such analyses in the past few weeks and thought that we would chime in here.


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Small-cap outperformance in the US likely at an end

Amid the choppy grind higher in US equities one key aspect for investors to look for is the prospect of the long-run relative bull market in small caps to end. If we look at the straight price ratio between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 it is now close to an all-time low (only piped by the trough in 1984).


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Morbidly Obese Australian Banks

Australian banks have grown in size hugely in recent years.  Astonishingly, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is the tenth largest bank in the world, despite Australia having a far smaller population than China, the US and the UK – the other…


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The case of the disappearing liquidity in corporate bond markets

One of the themes that we have been highlighting this year is the growing bubble in corporate bonds. It is pointless in the first instance to discuss whether super easy monetary policy that has fueled this bubble is appropriate or not. The main thing for investors to countenance is that the current monetary policy regime is having unintended consequences through the formation of a bubble in increasingly scarce liquid fixed income instruments.


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Inflation to hold UK recovery back

There are some notable reasons for near-term reasons for optimism in the UK. The housing market seems to be picking up, industrial production growth is looking up together with PMI data and the equity market has done well. All these are real and significant signs of a better economy in the UK, but the structural challenges remain.


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CNBC and Bloomberg interview on the Eurozone and Code Red at central banks

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Variant Perception’s Jonathan Tepper was on CNBC and Bloomberg this week to discuss prospects of deflation in the eurozone as well as his new book Code Red on global central banking, financial repression and what it means for investors.


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Slowing real money growth raises a red flag for growth and cyclical assets

Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since October 2010.


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Central bankers and politicians getting complacent

The economy and financial markets remain in the grips of the most easiest monetary policy the world has ever seen. The balance sheets at the Fed and the BOJ continue to expand at record pace and global real rates have been negative for over 3 years now. Negative real rates create tremendous incentives for borrowers to lever up and often create asset bubbles in debt, equity and property.


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US Government Shutdown, the Fed and Leading Indicators – Bloomberg Television

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Variant Perception’s Jonathan Tepper was on Bloomberg TV this morning talking about leading indicators in the US, the government shutdown and debt ceiling in the US as well as the Fed’s monetary policy.


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CNBC interview on the US government shutdown

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Variant Perception’s Claus Vistesen was on CNBC last week to discuss the market consequences of the government shutdown in the US.


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