German export growth losing its main engines

Germany remains the proverbial strong man of Europe, but we are skeptical that this is a fitting moniker. Looking at exports, it is now clear that Germany and thus Europe continues to see weakness. The total value of German exports has now clearly rolled over from its peak in mid-2012, which coincides with the share of total exports going to China.


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CNBC Interview – No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Cyprus

CNBC

Variant Perception’s Head of Research was guest host on CNBC’s Closing Bell this Friday talking about Cyprus and why banks may underperform due to flat yield curves.


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Disappointing development in Chinese leading indicators

Our leading indicator for China has turned down further which adds to the impression of an overall weak turn in Chinese growth. We would still term the turning point as intact, but all components of our leading indicator recently came in with negative readings.


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CNBC Interview – Negotiation over Cyprus ‘Is a game of bluff’

CNBC

Jonathan Tepper, founder and chief editor of Variant Perception, says he remains bullish on Europe despite the press conference in Moscow not being “terribly insightful” and describing the Cyprus crisis as “a game of bluff”.


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France in borderline depression territory

France looks increasingly like it is slipping into recession. It is the poorest performing core country – an increasingly inapt label. Highlighting this are the latest PMI numbers. The services PMI, already woefully depressed, slipped lower last month, to 41.9, lower even than Spain’s. The manufacturing PMI was barely much better, falling to 43.9.


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The Housing Market in Canada is Starting to Look Shaky

We have pointed to the Canadian housing market boom and subsequent bust on several occasions in our reports to clients. Canadian households are overlevered and the housing market has risen to new highs. However, we are now starting to see decisive signs of weakness and consequently and unwind of excess froth in the Canadian housing market.


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MARGIN DEBT IN THE US SHOULD BE WATCHED CLOSELY

Margin debt on the NYSE continues to rise, both when looking at the rate of change as well as the level of negative cash balances (lower chart).  Overall margin debt rose strongly going into 2013 and is now sitting only…


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Short leading indicators suggest strong US data ahead

Short-leading indicators for the US and global economy continue to show very strong signals mainly driven by low credit spreads and strong stock market performance.


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Global real rate still negative, but divergence between countries

The aggregate real global policy rate is still firmly negative due to the commitment to low interest rates in the major G4 economies, but we are seeing notable divergence between economies. The UK remains a textbook example of stagflation while real rates also differ markedly between emerging economies.


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From A Pact Made In Heaven To One Contrived In Hell

This weekend’s Italian elections are provoking a good deal of commentary and fueling mounting concern about possible consequences for the European debt crisis, and in particular for the outlook for Italian sovereign spreads in the short term. We think much of this concern is misplaced, not because we don’t think there is cause for concern, but because people are getting the timing wrong.


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