The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are more than likely to be followed by another set of negative readings for Q4
Japan Edges Towards the Cliff
Posted in Asia, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy on November 2, 2012Spain will be difficult to contain without help and bank recapitalisation
Posted in European Economy, Featured, Monetary Policy on April 19, 2012In our view, the Spanish banking system is in need of wholesale recapitalisation to deal with the sizeable losses in the country’s property market. This will likely include a bad bank provision. Before that happens, the ECB’s open market operations will mainly buy time in the form of liquidity as well as provide banks with money to exchange bad loans for lending to the government.
