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“We set up Variant Perception to solve our own investing needs. Most investment strategy and economic research we read was highly idiosyncratic and dependent on a guru or some strategist with a crystal ball. While they occasionally got some big calls right, they also missed…
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VP’s capital cycle, business cycle and tactical tools have helped time the key turns in US banks. The past 2.5 years have been a great demonstration of…
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We have seen a lot of narratives on liquidity driving the YTD rally. We think the consensus view of how to use and interpret liquidity in practice is…
VP Research
An old asset base + large infrastructure spending gap + negative real financing costs (financial repression) = an incoming capex supercycle. This is the…
VP Research
In case you missed it, our Head of Research Tian Yang was on Stephen Clapham’s Behind the Balance Sheet podcast this week. From Stephen: Variant…
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What we got right and what we got wrong (4Q22)Listen now (24 min) | *Released to VP clients on 27th Jan. A quarterly discussion where the VP team reviews what we've got right and wrong in our…
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We are exiting the age of abundance defined by cheap credit, cheap energy and cheap labor: profit and cash flow are sexy again. This is the 2nd part of…
VP Research
On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active. We…
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