The Variant Perception Blog

“We set up Variant Perception to solve our own investing needs. Most investment strategy and economic research we read was highly idiosyncratic and dependent on a guru or some strategist with a crystal ball. While they occasionally got some big calls right, they also missed…
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This is the third post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The third tool below…
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The speed of the surge in real yields over the past month is now comparable to the Taper Tantrum (left chart), and when we decompose the yield surge, it…
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This is the second post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The second tool…
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The below is an excerpt from one our recent reports, helping clients understand what a yield curve inversion means for their portfolios.‍ The yield…
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As part of a series of blog posts, we plan to share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The first tool…
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US bank net interest margins were historically very correlated to the yield curve (e.g. 2s10s). However in recent years, the correlation has broken down…
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With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars. The…
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