Category Archives: Tactical - 27 posts found

Excerpt from VP Tactical Report 9th Feb 2016: Sell EURSEK Rallies

From our Tactical Report of 9th Feb 2016: We like selling EURSEK to play the weak euro theme as the market looks towards the ECB meeting in March.  Sweden’s economy is in the midst of a cyclical upturn and leading…


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Rare Buy Signal on Gold; Potential Short-covering Rally

Over the past three weeks we have had two rare buy signals on gold. Previous buy signals have returned 5-10% over the next month. The signal is a measure of selling or buying exhaustion.  The returns are very good, and…


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Market health warnings

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of market themes, trading strategies and tactics.  For example, here is something we wrote for clients on August 12th before the recent market correction. If you would like to become a client, please contact sales@variantperception.com…


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Investors fully invested, but negative

We have a buy signal on AAII sentiment. Bearish retail sentiment often offers contrarian signals to enter the market and as the top two chart shows there are very few bears at the moment according to the AAII survey. This…


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Corn breaks higher; more upside ahead

About a month ago, we flagged a buy signal on spot corn for clients. Corn has rallied about 10% since then and more upside is ahead. Corn prices have been a strong downtrend since mid-2012 declining to the same levels seen in 2009-2010 before the rally in 2011. Looking at the technical picture this may now be about to change.


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AUD was due a tactical re-bound; watch the AUDNZD

The AUD has been under strong pressure in the past 12-18 months. A slowing Chinese economy, an unwinding housing and mining boom and a dovish RBA have all been contributing factors. Many of these reasons are still valid reasons to be fundamentally negative on Australia, but as we have pointed out since the beginning of the year the AUD was due a tactical rebound.


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Don’t blame EMs (too much) for the recent sell-off

Emerging markets are being blamed on just about all hiccups and bad surprises currently befalling the global economy and financial markets. However, this is slightly unwarranted and, in any case, not consistent with the evidence. Out of the 9 equity markets up on the month, Indonesia, Hungary, Peru, the Philippines and the Czech Republic are among them.


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Slipping rate differential is bearish for CAD

In October we wrote a report highlighting the bubble in Canadian housing and told clients that the currency in particular was under threat. A large current account deficit and the creeping expectations that the BoC might actually be forced into lowering rates have been key factors for a weaker currency.


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Strong equity returns usually on offer in December

December is indeed a good month to be long the stock market especially in Decembers that follow strong annual returns. We have seen a couple of such analyses in the past few weeks and thought that we would chime in here.


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Small-cap outperformance in the US likely at an end

Amid the choppy grind higher in US equities one key aspect for investors to look for is the prospect of the long-run relative bull market in small caps to end. If we look at the straight price ratio between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 it is now close to an all-time low (only piped by the trough in 1984).


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