Category Archives: Uncategorized - 7 posts found

Economic Surprise Indices to Fall Due to Rising Oil and Yields

S&P 500 returns are positively correlated to the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.   The Surprise Index leads the S&P 500 by about two months, as you can see from the chart on the left.  Normally, low levels in the index are…


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Good Entry Point to add to Gold Longs

(from our Tactical report of 10th January 2017) The major sell-off in gold in 4Q16 offers a great tactical entry to buy gold.  Gold has seen significant outflows over the past 3 months: Also January is a seasonally strong month…


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US Corporate Debt Near Records, Credit Spreads to Widen

The present calm in high-yield markets is entirely unwarranted and at odds with where we are in the US credit cycle.  Corporate debt to GDP in the US is at all-time highs. In the past, whenever corporate debt reached around…


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In the UK, the Answer is Not Blowing in the Wind

In this short blog, we will show how we looked at the UK economy going into the UK’s referendum to leave the EU, and why our approach meant our forecasts were not reliant on the referendum’s result.  We also show what our indicators are…


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Crash Signal warned clients January 5th

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of the state of market health with specific buy and sell signals.  Here is an excerpt from a weekly Tactical piece that went out to clients on January 5th. If you are an institutional client…


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Profit Cycle Turning Down

The corporate profit cycle is now turning down, and our leading economic indicators point to further declines in return on equity (ROE) and profit margins.  This is not a short-term call on equity markets but a major structural factor investors…


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Growth Outlook Starts to Cloud

Global growth has been well supported going into this year, and short-leading indicators had intimated this would continue into the latter part of the first quarter.  However, data has become more mixed with some releases giving cause for concern.  Some…


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