Aussie Housing Finance Rolling Over

We are already seeing cracks in the housing market in Australia.  At Variant Perception we track news articles of things in oversupply, as this flags interesting investment themes.  Normally, we’ve seen commodities in oversupply, but interestingly, Australian apartments are now…


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Commercial and Industrial Lending to Fall

You can take a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.  This is generally the mistake made by many when it comes to credit.  If you expand the availability of credit, and make it more attractive, then more…


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Financial Conditions Keep Tightening

Financial conditions are slowly but surely tightening.  We have had one actual rate hike by the Fed, but conditions had begun to tighten before this. This is primarily a developed market phenomenon. Real M1 for the G7 has been trending…


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Inflation Alive and Well in the US

We have focused on the theme of the misplaced fear of deflation at Variant Perception frequently over the past 18 months.  At several points, markets and commentators seem to have become preoccupied with a belief that growth-destroying deflation was imminent….


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Excerpt from VP Tactical Report 9th Feb 2016: Sell EURSEK Rallies

From our Tactical Report of 9th Feb 2016: We like selling EURSEK to play the weak euro theme as the market looks towards the ECB meeting in March.  Sweden’s economy is in the midst of a cyclical upturn and leading…


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The Market and the Economy

We discussed earlier last month how investors should not confuse the market and the economy.  The market might be volatile and suffering losses at the moment, but the US economy is still ambling along.  Manufacturing is likely in a recession, but…


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Gold Miners Very Cheap to Gold

From our Tactical Report of 19th Jan 2016: Gold miners continue to cheapen to the gold price.  Using the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (which has the longest history), precious-metal miners are now as cheap as they have ever been…


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The Remorseless Logic of Capital Outflows from China

China is in the midst of a debt-deflationary bust.  It is an ongoing process that has gathered pace recently.  Capital outflows are a symptom of this, and a weaker yuan is an integral part of the attempted cure.  We expect…


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Weaker Sterling and the UK’s Profound Reliance on Foreign Capital

The UK’s reliance on foreign capital is astounding.  This is crucial to appreciate the broad-based decline in sterling we have seen over the past 6 months. As we have reminded clients frequently over the past 2 years and more, the…


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Crash Signal warned clients January 5th

Variant Perception keeps clients informed of the state of market health with specific buy and sell signals.  Here is an excerpt from a weekly Tactical piece that went out to clients on January 5th. If you are an institutional client…


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