Tag Archives: Australia - 5 posts found

Short AUDCAD As Proxy China Trade

Although both AUD and CAD are commodity currencies, given Australia’s outsized exposure to China, AUDCAD can be used as a proxy trade on the Chinese economy. AUDCAD is approaching the top of its range just as Chinese liquidity is rolling…


Read more

Australian Banks: A Shorting Opportunity

The housing-driven downturn we have discussed through last year continues to develop, albeit at a slower pace than we originally expected. The situation is deteriorating, though, with building permits – the best leading indicator for housing – now falling at…


Read more

AUD was due a tactical re-bound; watch the AUDNZD

The AUD has been under strong pressure in the past 12-18 months. A slowing Chinese economy, an unwinding housing and mining boom and a dovish RBA have all been contributing factors. Many of these reasons are still valid reasons to be fundamentally negative on Australia, but as we have pointed out since the beginning of the year the AUD was due a tactical rebound.


Read more

Variant Perception Report on Australia Attracts Attention

Variant Perception recently put out a report to the public about Australia, why the economy and currency are vulnerable and why the RBA is likely to cut rates further. The report has gathered a lot of attention from various official media outlets and blogs.


Read more

Australian mining is both cyclically and structurally exposed to a slowdown in China

One of the world’s biggest commodity producers, BHP Billiton, recently got a lot of attention by suggesting that the so far insatiable Chinese demand for commodities may have come to an end. The argument is simple enough: the rate of growth in China is slowing. However, the implications for commodity exporters, such as Australia, who have invested dizzying sums of money in expanding capacity to reflect an ever higher increase in Chinese commodity hunger, may be very big indeed.


Read more