Tag Archives: manufacturing - 5 posts found

The Market and the Economy

We discussed earlier last month how investors should not confuse the market and the economy.  The market might be volatile and suffering losses at the moment, but the US economy is still ambling along.  Manufacturing is likely in a recession, but…


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Manufacturing and Services PMIs Diverge

There has been a sharp divergence between ISM services and non-services in the US. Many of our leading indicators for manufacturing have pointed to weakness. This suggests demand is tilting away from manufacturing and towards the service sector.  The breakdown…


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US Manufacturing – More Weakness to Come

US manufacturing has slowed in recent months, and we expect more to come.  We had noted the discrepancy between the PMI and ISM surveys earlier this year as it looked like the ISM was outputting data inconsistent with our leading…


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High bar for further improvement in US manufacturing

The last seven months have seen an impressive improvement in US manufacturing. Almost all components of US manufacturing have been growing strongly and the US ISM has staged an impressive comeback from sub-50 in May last year to 57 in December. However, our growth diffusion index now implies the potential for short-term disappointment.


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Global Export and Manufacturing Growth Picking Up

The OECD diffusion index leads our global export index by about 6-9 months, and even if it is turning down into mid-2013, it suggests that better times are ahead for global export activity (upper chart). Indeed, we are now seeing…


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