Tag Archives: money - 6 posts found

Reflation in Danger Due to Low Liquidity

Over the past few weeks we have expressed scepticism on the Trump reflation trade and we have argued that bank stocks should underperform. We have shown previously that when you look at the 3 and 6 month change in Commercial…


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Financial Conditions Keep Tightening

Financial conditions are slowly but surely tightening.  We have had one actual rate hike by the Fed, but conditions had begun to tighten before this. This is primarily a developed market phenomenon. Real M1 for the G7 has been trending…


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EM Money Growth Improving

Capital outflows from emerging markets continued into the second quarter of 2015.  Once again the outflows mainly emanated from China and from CEE and Russia.  The flipside is growth Treasuries held in custody for foreign accounts is stuck at zero…


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Despite the rout, excess liquidity will prove to be supportive

  Stock markets are experiencing a classic crash pattern.  Volatility has spiked and sharp sell offs are often being followed by powerful rallies.  As with previous crash patterns, we would expect markets to continue to gyrate wildly for around the next…


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Money surges in Europe, growth to follow

If you ignore the ongoing Greek sideshow, rarely has European money growth been as accommodative as it is today. Europe has enormous structural problems of too much debt, an inflexible currency and an ageing population, but cyclical factors are very…


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UK Credit and Money Growth at Extremes

Easy monetary policy in the UK is looking ever more inappropriate.  Divisia money is a weighted money-supply measure.  Higher forms of money, eg notes and coins have greater weights than less liquid forms of money, such as building society deposits. …


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