Tag Archives: sterling - 5 posts found

In the UK, the Answer is Not Blowing in the Wind

In this short blog, we will show how we looked at the UK economy going into the UK’s referendum to leave the EU, and why our approach meant our forecasts were not reliant on the referendum’s result.  We also show what our indicators are…


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Weaker Sterling and the UK’s Profound Reliance on Foreign Capital

The UK’s reliance on foreign capital is astounding.  This is crucial to appreciate the broad-based decline in sterling we have seen over the past 6 months. As we have reminded clients frequently over the past 2 years and more, the…


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UK: The current account deficit is growing and looking more entrenched

Much has been made of the made of Chancellor George Osborne’s success with austerity and the UK’s eruption back into growth, confounding his critics. However, ‘austerity’ has been more of a publicity exercise. Government spending as percentage of GDP has fallen only slightly, but is still higher than it ever was before the financial crisis.


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UK’s current account deficit worst in G10; weaker GBP on cards

Data in the UK has been broadly positive, with much fanfare over revised GDP data showing the UK avoided the dreaded ‘double dip’.  This is a trivial distinction; the reality is the UK is still bumping along the bottom.  Manufacturing…


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Sterling’s rally to peter out on rising inflation

The strength of sterling has been in part due to some safe-haven flows from the Middle East (where sometimes GBP is seen as a preferable safe-haven to the USD or CHF), but this is not the fundamental driver.


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