Tag Archives: yield curve - 5 posts found

Buy USDJPY Dips

Fundamentals in Japan still support a weaker JPY. Yield differentials are one of the most important drivers of currencies and, as the top chart shows, this shows that USDJPY is becoming stretched to the downside. Also, as we highlighted in…


Read more

Financial Conditions Ease, but Growth to Remain Weak

Two of the best global leading indicators tools we have are VP’s Business Cycle Financing Index (BCFI) – which tracks financial conditions, eg are central banks easing or hiking, credit spreads widening or tightening (first chart) –  and the global yield…


Read more

Financial Conditions Keep Tightening

Financial conditions are slowly but surely tightening.  We have had one actual rate hike by the Fed, but conditions had begun to tighten before this. This is primarily a developed market phenomenon. Real M1 for the G7 has been trending…


Read more

Yield Curves Flattening Everywhere: Global Growth to Slow

As we remind our readers often, yield curves are one of the single best leading indicators.  A yield curve inversion has predicted every US recession since 1945, with only one false positive, in 1966 (although the false positive preceded a…


Read more

Watch the Current Account Deficit Countries

Since tapering discussions pushed up yields in the US, this has led to a steepening of yield curves across the developed world. The US has seen the greatest steepening, which argues for higher growth in the US ahead. However, the…


Read more