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Gold lessons from the 1970s
The long-term case for gold remains intact. The ratio of total US M1 (adjusted for the recent savings deposit re-classification) to gold has continued to surge higher, showing the underlying trend remains bullish.
A bullish long-term trend does not mean things move in a straight line. Even the gold bull market during the high inflation of the 1970s saw an extended crash of 40%+ for 1.5 years from 1974/75 and another 20% crash in 1980 that ultimately ended up being a 50% peak to trough drawdown.
Counter-intuitively, the extremely negative rates observed in 1974/75 and 1980 marked tops in gold. In 1975, private US citizens were allowed to start owning gold again in a macro environment of heightened inflation, so one might have expected gold prices to rise from 1975, but the exact opposite happened.
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