Variant Perception, Made Repeatable.
Rigorous investment research grounded in auditable quantitative models. No black boxes, no guru calls.
Research
A whiff of reflation - Oct. G3 Leading Indicator Watch
Our cyclical roadmap: Fed has eased monetary policy into a backdrop of elevated nominal GDP. Recession is unlikely if financial conditions are loose and savings rates are falling.
- US Inflation: Moderate inflation pressures 
- US Consumer/Manufacturing: Signs of relief + potential for an inventory re-build cycle 
- US Recession Risks: Recession unlikely if everyone dis-saves and financial conditions loose 
- US Growth: 2002-03 analog in muted jobs market alongside resilient growth 
- US Growth: Resilient leading indicators alongside resilient coincident growth 
- China: Excess liquidity tailwinds, waiting for more housing/consumer stimulus 
- China: Rebound continues for growth and inflation leading indicators 
- Eurozone: Consensus too optimistic on disinflation 
- Eurozone: Leading indicator improvement broadening, but structural issues remain 
Opportunistic long VIX to hedge risk asset exposures
- The old saying in risk management: buy protection when you can, not when you have to. 
- We’ve been intentionally opportunistic in flagging when the volatility market presents attractive risk-reward opportunities to add long vol exposure. Today, our indicators once again signal a favorable tactical setup to go long volatility. 
- Our tactical “complacency” signal has triggered again for US equities. US single-stock implied volatility is now very elevated relative to the S&P index volatility. 
Global Macro Update: Fed cut roadmap playing out, adjusting our top ideas
- Our “buy the rumor, sell the fact” playbook around the September Fed meeting is playing out, where the Fed cut marks a tradeable low in yields and the USD while ultimately supporting further equity gains. 
- In the very short-term, we like adding tactical long VIX position amid signs of complacency. In light of this, and given some big price moves over the past week, we are narrowing our focus: - Take profit on long CADJPY 
- Take profit on Long INDA 
- Close flat PnL on short CNHINR 
- Change UK rates recession trade 
 

