Echoes of 2016, 2003 and 1999: Signposts to watch
Weekly Wrap - Jan 9, 2026
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Echoes of 2016, 2003 and 1999: Signposts to watch - Jan. Macro Snapshot
Our Macro Risk Indicator has only been as bullish as today on five occasions. None of these past moments since 1990 can be a perfect match, but three stand out: 2016, 2003 and 1999.
Events in Venezuelan show that history is rhyming again. The United States is re-asserting strategic control over the Western Hemisphere. This was Pillar #1 in our recent thematic, The Primacy of Sovereignty.
Notes
Cyclical Asset Allocation: Macro Risk Indicator as “risk-on” as ’16, ’03, and ’99
2016: Manufacturing recovery after rolling recession
2003: “Jobless” recovery with rising productivity
1999: High valuations and speculative mania with generational IPO
Equity: Consensus optimism vs sound macro => energy/financial/tech barbell, EM, value
Fixed Income: US 10y fair value range of 3.75% - 4%, watch the SOFR curve
FX: More nuanced outlook for USD, but APAC vs EUR remains key divergence
Commodities: Commodity outlook still strong, but parabolic metals rally due for pause
