Post-Iran Stabilization - EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch
Weekly Wrap - 27 June 2026
This week's charts and research highlights from Variant Perception.
Chart of the Week
There remains meaningful dispersion across different economies. DM: both UK and Switz continue to have poor growth LEIs, helping our GBP receiver and short CHFJPY.
Post-Iran Stabilization - EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch - Jun 25
The de-escalation of the Iran conflict has successfully arrested the downside momentum in global growth data and the upward momentum in inflation data.
Within DM, UK growth risks are more recognized and we take profit on our GBP receivers. We stick with short CHF vs long JPY as BoJ policy is at a breaking point. We shift our short EUR vs long USD into a short EUR vs long AUD given the AUD sell-off.
Within EM, our Brazil risk-parity position is exposed to election risks and we would look to reduce exposure in the coming weeks. In S. Korea there are signs the Semi/AI boom is relatively narrow and not yet helping other parts of the economy. Indonesia is seeing a large cluster of LPPL crash exhaustion buy signals.
Post-Iran Stabilization - June EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch - [Video Discussion]
Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) & Hugh Vuillier (Head of Client Relations)
DM
UK: Yields at 3-month lows, now more aligned with macro view => take profit on receivers
Japan: BoJ still at breaking point in face of fiscal & inflation => stick with short CHF vs long JPY
Australia: Growth peaking, but hedging demand for AUD remains => short EUR vs long AUD
Canada: Resilient growth LEIs, any USMCA-induced CAD sell-off is a buying opportunity
EM
Brazil: Political/fiscal risks overwhelming cheap valuations into October elections
S. Korea: Semi/AI drives growth, but BoK’s hawkishness already well priced
India: Low monsoon rainfall remains the tail risk, not yet time to buy Indian assets
Indonesia: Equity capitulation likely complete on LPPL signal, MSCI delay and rate hikes
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