Staying the course - Nov. Macro Snapshot
Weekly Wrap, Nov 7, 2025
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Staying the course - Nov. Macro Snapshot
LEIs still support risk assets over the next 6m. Policy and liquidity tailwinds are intact while our growth LEIs for US, Eurozone, and China are elevated. Our “no recession” Fed easing cycle roadmap is starting to play out (stronger USD, higher equities, rising yields).
Tactical: notable divergences in US equity markets and optimistic earnings estimates. Reason for caution with nimble portfolios.
Despite US data blackout, available data suggests consumption and manufacturing are resilient. Watch labor and housing for further weakness.
Sector Notes
Cyclical Asset Allocation: Growth, policy, and liquidity tailwinds persist
Fed Easing Cycle: Equities, USD still tracking “no recession” Fed easing cycles
Tactical Warning Signs: Notable breadth and credit divergences
US Growth: Resilience from consumption and manufacturing …
US Growth: … but labor and housing markets remain weak
Equity: Earnings optimism elevated, macro tailwinds for value, EM
Fixed Income: Yields trading around fair value
FX: USD short squeeze thesis playing out
Commodities: Outlook strong, energy and industrial metals still cheap vs gold
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