Still risk-on - Aug. Macro Snapshot

Aug 09, 2026

This week's charts and research highlights from Variant Perception.

Chart of the Week

The overall equity market has weathered the July AI equity crash, with the average US stock still trending higher.

(3 August)

Our Macro Risk Indicator remains “risk-on” with G3 growth LEIs rebounding. US earnings estimate revisions are rising again, while low savings rates continue to sustain spending and profits.
We believe the Situational Awareness stop-out marks a tradeable low in semis and AI. Semis remain capital scarce on our capital cycle models, while their crowding score has now reset to more neutral levels.
The consensus reaction to the July Fed hold is that Warsh is going to be tested by markets in the coming months, pressuring him into a September hike. We lean against a hike this close to the mid-terms, as we expect core inflation to remain capped.

Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) & Ben Brodeur (Analyst)

Section Summary

Cyclical Asset Allocation: Macro Risk Indicator remains “risk-on” as growth stays resilient
AI Bubble Watch: Buy the dip on semis, seeing some LPPL buy signals, market breadth resilient
G3 Leading Indicators: Growth LEIs rebound, inflation impulse continues to fade
Policy shifts: Main risk in 2H26 is lagged effect from policy tightening, but we are not there yet
Inflation: US core inflation to remain capped, STIR markets already priced for inflation upside
Equity: Earnings estimate revisions rising again, corroborates macro tailwinds
Sector Allocation: OW: Semis, Energy, Financials, Materials; UW: Consumer, Healthcare
Fixed Income: Surging real yields offer great value, watch 2s5s10s for signs Fed is offside
FX: Politics trumps economics: take profit on short CHF vs long JPY
Commodities: Neutral cyclical outlook, but upside risks for oil remain