US resilient, China stalling, Eurozone edging higher - Nov. G3 Leading Indicator Watch

Nov 14, 2025

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Balance of shutdown data confirms resilient US economy. Cyclical roadmap: Fed still easing into elevated nominal GDP growth.
US: Parallels with 2002–03. “Jobless” growth and rising productivity against backdrop of elevated excess liquidity and Fed easing.
China: Growth LEIs and liquidity losing momentum. More stimulus needed for housing/consumer sectors.
Eurozone: We struggle to get too excited about growth LEIs recovery given structural problems. Still like short EURUSD.

Notes

US Growth: Still resilient
US Inflation: Moderate inflation pressures, Fed can focus on labor market
US 2002-03 Analog: “Jobless” growth, rising labor productivity and excess liquidity
US Manufacturing: Lower yields, lower oil, and lower USD are manufacturing tailwinds
China: Growth leading indicator rolling over
China: Liquidity tailwinds slowing, more housing/consumer stimulus needed
Eurozone: Improvements in growth leading indicators continue
Eurozone: Inflation outlook mixed, weaker euro still playing out

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