We re-visit an empirical US election framework (Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Whitehouse) as a complementary piece to polling and betting market data for the 2024 US elections.
Thats a very interesting way to predict outcomes. Its true that elections are basically a reflection of the past, i didnt really think about it like that.
It's an interesting way to look at it, and I appreciate it's trying not to sound out individual policies that may just be the flavor of the month. But, to use an oft maligned phrase, it does feel different this time. Specifically, the DEI/BLM movement and immigration really seem to set passions aflame at an intensity I haven't seen in a long time (maybe the Vietnam War?) Maybe it gets picked up in the social unrest (doubtful) or more likely the charisma ratings on both sides. I guess we'll see.
Thats a very interesting way to predict outcomes. Its true that elections are basically a reflection of the past, i didnt really think about it like that.
It's an interesting way to look at it, and I appreciate it's trying not to sound out individual policies that may just be the flavor of the month. But, to use an oft maligned phrase, it does feel different this time. Specifically, the DEI/BLM movement and immigration really seem to set passions aflame at an intensity I haven't seen in a long time (maybe the Vietnam War?) Maybe it gets picked up in the social unrest (doubtful) or more likely the charisma ratings on both sides. I guess we'll see.