The US consumer won't stop the reversal of the bullwhip effect
blog.variantperception.com
Our US Recession Signal has NOT fully triggered yet, but underlying recession risks are picking up as the bullwhip effect reversal plays out (see here). The below is an excerpt from our Nov 3rd report to VP clients. We expect a protracted contraction in manufacturing activity. October ISM manufacturing held up above the 50 level (50.2). But new orders vs inventories ratio is below the critical level of 1, pointing to an imminent contraction of manufacturing activity (left-hand chart).
The US consumer won't stop the reversal of the bullwhip effect
The US consumer won't stop the reversal of…
The US consumer won't stop the reversal of the bullwhip effect
Our US Recession Signal has NOT fully triggered yet, but underlying recession risks are picking up as the bullwhip effect reversal plays out (see here). The below is an excerpt from our Nov 3rd report to VP clients. We expect a protracted contraction in manufacturing activity. October ISM manufacturing held up above the 50 level (50.2). But new orders vs inventories ratio is below the critical level of 1, pointing to an imminent contraction of manufacturing activity (left-hand chart).