The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes. Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack could be eroded more quickly than many expect given the strength of our US growth leading indicators. Last week’s NFIB surveys show that small businesses are finding it more difficult than ever to fill positions.
Tracking the US's Labour Market Recovery
Tracking the US's Labour Market Recovery
Tracking the US's Labour Market Recovery
The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes. Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack could be eroded more quickly than many expect given the strength of our US growth leading indicators. Last week’s NFIB surveys show that small businesses are finding it more difficult than ever to fill positions.