While I agree that a second wave of inflation is unlikely, we should be aware that spot rents (Both S&P Case Shiller and Zillow Rent Index) show a persistent re-increase in rents since 4Q24. If we assume that spot rents have a 12-month lagged effect on inflation data, the 2nd half of 2025 should see some inflationary pressure.
While I agree that a second wave of inflation is unlikely, we should be aware that spot rents (Both S&P Case Shiller and Zillow Rent Index) show a persistent re-increase in rents since 4Q24. If we assume that spot rents have a 12-month lagged effect on inflation data, the 2nd half of 2025 should see some inflationary pressure.