Our best charts and research from the week.
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Lower Margin of Safety - October Macro Snapshot
(Oct 1)
Cyclical Asset Allocation: Macro Risk Indicator rolling over, still “Risk On”, but lower margin of safety.
AI Bubble Watch: Equity breadth weakening, watching the Cisco / Sycamore / Juniper analogs.
History of Fed Hikes: Base case for an equity wobble and flatter curves, no immediate recession.
Inflation: Oil and Iran driving narrative, but inflation breadth is muted.
Fixed Income: Tactical signs of capitulation, need Iran progress to buy the dip.
Thoughts on the US Dollar
(Sep 28)
We introduce a new simplified US dollar regime indicator and our upgraded FX edge models.
Takeaway: USD between crosscurrents, mildly bearish outlook anchored on politics
