We review our Top 10 Surprises for 2026 originally published in December 2025.
Recorded 25 September 2026.
Speakers:
Tian Yang (CIO at Variant Perception & VPX ETF Fund Manager)
Hugh Vuillier (Head of Client Relations).
In tribute to Byron Wien, we follow his definition of a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would assign less than a 33% probability, but which we believe is “Probable,” having a 50%+ likelihood.
Timestamps:
[02:40] Trump’s capex boom arrives a year late, broadens beyond AI
[06:20] US growth surprises to the upside despite a muted labour market
[9:15] Housing disinflation breaks sticky inflation narratives
[10:20] US 10y yields go nowhere, trading in a tight range around 4%
[21:41] Value equities outperform growth
[24:00] G10 FX divergence: Apac (AUD & NZD) over Europe (EUR & GBP)
[29:55] EM equities outperform DM, led by Brazil
[31:11] Oil trades below $50 and above $75 at some point in the year
[34:47] China tech stocks outperform US tech stocks
[~37:19] Capital cycle: US regional banks & energy services outperform
[41:00] Q&A
