Our best charts and research from the week.
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Housing headwinds to restrain hawkish pricing -
Sep. EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch
(24 Sep)
Our global diffusion indices show a marginally softer growth outlook and a fading inflation impulse.
We like receiving AUD 2y2y as the lagged effects of previous RBA hikes start to hit the housing market.
We stay long SONIA Dec-27 futures (SFIZ7) as the UK housing market struggles against a hawkish BoE
Sweden is still the positive outlier and we like short CHF vs long SEK.
Within EM, idiosyncratic risks dominate. We are waiting on Brazil’s October elections and India’s deficient monsoon rainfall.
South Africa’s outlook is now stagflation-lite.
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