Hawks vs Buyable Dips

We’re hosting an after-hours office hours in NYC Nov 11.

Join us for a drink and discussion of our latest report, The Sovereign Impossible Trinity.

CIO Tian Yang will lead the conversation, sharing VP’s current outlook, our perspective on how we got here, and answering your questions.

Please RSVP to reserve your spot.

https://luma.com/k04rwaui

Hawks vs Buyable Dips

EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

(Oct 26)

Global Growth and inflation impulses deteriorate further, both firmly negative

The majority of inputs to our country growth and inflation LEIs are deteriorating QoQ.

Inflation levels and concerns about central bank credibility are keeping policy hawkish for now.

UK Growth resilience forces a rethink. Switch long SFIZ7 into SFIZ6Z7 flattener

CBI order book surveys have bounced off lows.

Aus: More growth downside risks while inflation risks are known => continue to receive 2y2y

Our Australia Growth Leading Indicator has rolled over, as PMI surveys and housing data have turned lower.

Brazil: Lula’s shock win adds risk premium, history says buy the dip

In a past thematic, we showed high risk premia of contentious LatAm elections tend to unwind over the following year after the results, no matter who wins.

India: Equity investor capitulation, but food inflation keeps us on the sidelines for now

Our crowding score for Indian equities is the lowest on record.

Asset Allocation Engine

(Nov 2 2026)

Our Macro Risk Indicator turns our best cyclical models into a single number to help choose risk exposure. It is designed around downside volatility of a 60/40 portfolio.

We use machine learning to understand how growth, inflation, policy, and liquidity interact. Output it is manually audited so that decision trees are intuitive.