Hiking into weaker growth

Our best charts and research from the week.
Find out more about us here.

Hiking Into Weaker Growth

G3 Leading Indicator Watch
(Oct 6)

Central banks are hiking into weakening growth. Inflation impulse is already negative.

Our Inflation input diffusion is very weak. Outside energy, the trend is disinflation.

US Growth: Steady outlook. Fed hike signals transition to late-cycle environment

US growth leading indicator is still trending sideways at just under 2% annualised. That is well below GDPNow.

US Inflation breadth is surprisingly muted, while Iran and El Niño remain tail risks.

US Inflation leading indicators are still rolling over.

China Growth LEI weakens further on domestic demand drag, getting closer to policy pivot.

China growth impulse leading indicator has fallen four months straight. Weighing on it, is weak domestic demand.

Slowing Eurozone growth outlook, lagged effect of previous yield rises feeding through

Our Eurozone growth leading indicator has continued to roll over, now falling to 1.1% annualized.

Subscribe | Website | Request Trial