This post is an excerpt from a video originally shared with VP clients on November 7, 2024. Link to original video here. To gain access to more of our research, contact us here.
Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Chief Markets Economist)
Trump's decisive victory (foreseen by the “Keys to the White House”) reinforces structural trends: The Republican sweep should boost nearshoring, domestic CapEx, and FDI inflows into the U.S., accelerating ongoing megatrends such as reshoring, manufacturing, and supply chain restructuring.
Don't expect dramatic change in Fed's policy or surge in UST yields: Powell's future remains uncertain, but the Fed is likely to proceed with rate cuts for the rest of 2024, before pausing and becoming data dependent as inflation stabilizes. Bond yields may rise further in the near term, but fears of a "Liz Truss moment" in the US bond market seem overblown.
Strong dollar with regional divergences: The dollar is expected to stay strong, but Asian currencies may have limited downside due to already weak levels, while structural euro weakness could persist for years to restore competitiveness.
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