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The How, What, and Why of VP's Asset Allocation Engine

Asset allocation using leading indicators, capital cycle & crowding

This video was originally shared with VP clients on September 23, 2024. Link to original video here. To gain access to more of our research, contact us here.


Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Scott Freeman (Director of Asset Allocation)

There are 2 key decisions to get right for asset allocation:

  • How much to allocate to risk assets (stock vs. bond vs. cash allocation).

  • How to gain exposure to outperforming sectors while avoiding underperforming ones.

We address these two problems in a repeatable way, using the best frameworks we have developed over the 15 year history of Variant Perception.

  • Our leading indicators help us understand the business cycle.

  • Our capital cycle models help us understand long-term profitability trends across industries.

  • Our crowding indicators help us understand market positioning and herding behavior.

These 3 key models can be synthesized into modular and customizable portfolios that:

  • Maximize upside capture & minimize downside capture vs. standard benchmarks.

  • Do NOT take undue risk with leverage or hero calls.

  • Have reasonable trading turnover.

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We build predictive investment models by combining timeless axioms with innovative techniques. Operating at the intersection of market history and data science, we believe that man + machine beats man or machine alone.