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Fiscal outlook - VP April 2024 Big Picture Discussion

This post is an excerpt from our April 7, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.


Highlights from April 2024 Big Picture discussion:

  • Investors now view inflation as the “biggest tail risk”, but leading data is telling a different story, aligning more with a “mini inflation scare” scenario. We view fading fiscal stimulus as the actual greatest risk over the next 6-12 months, with upcoming April tax receipts as a key sign post.

  • History tells us fiscal deficits persist overtime in democratic nations, which raises long-term inflation risks. To combat these risks, the political path of least resistance is likely financial repression pending a major rise in social unrest.

  • Commodities and real assets are the likely winners in this environment. This creates major structural tailwinds for resource-intensive Latin American economies that remain capital scarce.

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