US fiscal and labor hoarding have been key supports for US growth. Under-the-hood issues of tax receipts and job openings suggest an elevated dependence on deficit spending, creating inflation upside risk.
The AI investment spree has echoes of the fiber optic build-out. The productivity gains need to be weighed against an increasingly geopolitical world focused on security vs efficiency and where fiscal and monetary policy co-ordination is much more likely.
China structural risks appear to be a feature, not a bug, favoring proxy plays to benefit from upside risks.
VP February 2024 Big Picture Discussion