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Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active. We…
VP Research
Jan 29
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Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
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VP December 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
Listen now (39 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Dec 8th 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1FhkcW3_hM
VP Research
Jan 21
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VP December 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
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The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
In the coming decade governments will no longer hide behind the “invisible” hand of the market. They will be forced to make explicit choices on how…
VP Research
Jan 7
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The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
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December 2022
Volatility forest fires yet to burn
The below is an excerpt from our Nov 22nd report to VP clients. One of the interesting features of this year’s bear market has been the strong…
VP Research
Dec 17, 2022
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Volatility forest fires yet to burn
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November 2022
VP November 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
Listen now (40 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Nov 10th 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFFi0HjYxQQ
VP Research
Nov 26, 2022
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VP November 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
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The US consumer won't stop the reversal of the bullwhip effect
Our US Recession Signal has NOT fully triggered yet, but underlying recession risks are picking up as the bullwhip effect reversal plays out (see here…
VP Research
Nov 12, 2022
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The US consumer won't stop the reversal of the bullwhip effect
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October 2022
Sticking to fixed income duration overweights
Our analytical framework involves 3 different time horizons: Tactical (1-3 months trading outlook) Cyclical (6-12 months liquidity/growth outlook…
VP Research
Oct 29, 2022
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Sticking to fixed income duration overweights
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What we got right and what we got wrong (3Q22)
Listen now (18 min) | *Released to VP clients on 18th Oct. A quarterly discussion where the VP team reviews what we've got right and wrong in our…
VP Research
Oct 22, 2022
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What we got right and what we got wrong (3Q22)
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VP Tactical Cookbook part 3: buy/sell signals
This is the final part of our series exploring our tactical 1-3 month investment framework: buy/sell signals. See Part 1 (key concepts) and Part 2…
VP Research
Oct 8, 2022
11
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VP Tactical Cookbook part 3: buy/sell signals
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Be selective as EM hiking cycles end
EM countries have hiked earlier and faster than DM countries, keeping a lid on domestic inflation and allowing a select few EM central banks to end…
VP Research
Oct 1, 2022
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Be selective as EM hiking cycles end
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September 2022
VP September 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
Listen now (39 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Sep 8th 2022. https://youtu.be/ZxLB-oUFGgE
VP Research
Sep 24, 2022
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VP September 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion
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VP Tactical Cookbook part 2: Trend, Sentiment, Analog
This is the second post of our 3-part series exploring our tactical 1-3 month investment framework where we build an asset’s tactical outlook based on…
VP Research
Sep 17, 2022
8
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VP Tactical Cookbook part 2: Trend, Sentiment, Analog
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