On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active. We…
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VP December 2022 Market Outlook & Discussion Listen now (39 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Dec 8th 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1FhkcW3_hM
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In the coming decade governments will no longer hide behind the “invisible” hand of the market. They will be forced to make explicit choices on how…
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December 2022

The below is an excerpt from our Nov 22nd report to VP clients. One of the interesting features of this year’s bear market has been the strong…

November 2022

VP November 2022 Market Outlook & DiscussionListen now (40 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Nov 10th 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFFi0HjYxQQ
Our US Recession Signal has NOT fully triggered yet, but underlying recession risks are picking up as the bullwhip effect reversal plays out (see here…

October 2022

Our analytical framework involves 3 different time horizons: Tactical (1-3 months trading outlook) Cyclical (6-12 months liquidity/growth outlook…
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What we got right and what we got wrong (3Q22)Listen now (18 min) | *Released to VP clients on 18th Oct. A quarterly discussion where the VP team reviews what we've got right and wrong in our…
This is the final part of our series exploring our tactical 1-3 month investment framework: buy/sell signals. See Part 1 (key concepts) and Part 2…
EM countries have hiked earlier and faster than DM countries, keeping a lid on domestic inflation and allowing a select few EM central banks to end…

September 2022

VP September 2022 Market Outlook & DiscussionListen now (39 min) | *Recorded and released to VP clients on Sep 8th 2022. https://youtu.be/ZxLB-oUFGgE
This is the second post of our 3-part series exploring our tactical 1-3 month investment framework where we build an asset’s tactical outlook based on…