This is the third post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The third tool below…
The speed of the surge in real yields over the past month is now comparable to the Taper Tantrum (left chart), and when we decompose the yield surge, it…
This is the second post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The second tool…
The below is an excerpt from one our recent reports, helping clients understand what a yield curve inversion means for their portfolios.‍ The yield…
As part of a series of blog posts, we plan to share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The first tool…
US bank net interest margins were historically very correlated to the yield curve (e.g. 2s10s). However in recent years, the correlation has broken down…
With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars. The…
Last month's US inflation print of 7.5% made headlines even among the non-financial press, and caused money markets to overshoot in pricing an even more…
Markets have been aggressively pricing in Fed hikes as inflation starts to bite for many households. Rampant inflation has pushed real rates into deep…
Jeremy Grantham's recent piece, Let the wild rumpus begin, argued that the US is in its 4th "superbubble" of the last 100 years and is in its final…
Google trend searches for “savings glut” shows the surge of interest in the 2000s and waning interest ever since (left chart below). This is matched by…
The fossil fuel narrative has understandably focused on the death blow coming from electric vehicles and renewable energy. However, the history of…