This is the third post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The third tool below…
The speed of the surge in real yields over the past month is now comparable to the Taper Tantrum (left chart), and when we decompose the yield surge, it…
As part of a series of blog posts, we plan to share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The first tool…
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity…
This is the second post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The second tool…
The below is an excerpt from one our recent reports, helping clients understand what a yield curve inversion means for their portfolios.‍ The yield…
Jeremy Grantham's recent piece, Let the wild rumpus begin, argued that the US is in its 4th "superbubble" of the last 100 years and is in its final…
“We set up Variant Perception to solve our own investing needs. Most investment strategy and economic research we read was highly idiosyncratic and…
US bank net interest margins were historically very correlated to the yield curve (e.g. 2s10s). However in recent years, the correlation has broken down…
Last month's US inflation print of 7.5% made headlines even among the non-financial press, and caused money markets to overshoot in pricing an even more…
With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars. The…
Gold has been diverging from macro and market data. Our macro-driven gold price indicator (a fair value forecast based on macro inputs like the DXY…