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Tools that have helped us the most #3
This is the third post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The third tool below…
VP Research
May 14
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Tools that have helped us the most #3
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The "bad" kind of rate rise
The speed of the surge in real yields over the past month is now comparable to the Taper Tantrum (left chart), and when we decompose the yield surge, it…
VP Research
May 7
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The "bad" kind of rate rise
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Tools that have helped us the most #1
As part of a series of blog posts, we plan to share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The first tool…
VP Research
Apr 2
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Tools that have helped us the most #1
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The Next Commodity Supercycle
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity…
VP Research
Feb 17, 2021
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The Next Commodity Supercycle
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Tools that have helped us the most #2
This is the second post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The second tool…
VP Research
Apr 23
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Tools that have helped us the most #2
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Yield curve inversion: not an actionable investment signal
The below is an excerpt from one our recent reports, helping clients understand what a yield curve inversion means for their portfolios. The yield…
VP Research
Apr 16
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Yield curve inversion: not an actionable investment signal
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Revisiting the anatomy of a bubble
Jeremy Grantham's recent piece, Let the wild rumpus begin, argued that the US is in its 4th "superbubble" of the last 100 years and is in its final…
VP Research
Jan 22
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Revisiting the anatomy of a bubble
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12 Years of VP
“We set up Variant Perception to solve our own investing needs. Most investment strategy and economic research we read was highly idiosyncratic and…
VP Research
Jun 12, 2021
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12 Years of VP
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Rate impact on banks
US bank net interest margins were historically very correlated to the yield curve (e.g. 2s10s). However in recent years, the correlation has broken down…
VP Research
Mar 19
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Rate impact on banks
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Inflation panic overdone
Last month's US inflation print of 7.5% made headlines even among the non-financial press, and caused money markets to overshoot in pricing an even more…
VP Research
Feb 26
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Inflation panic overdone
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Markets vs wars
With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars. The…
VP Research
Mar 5
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Markets vs wars
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Gold divergences
Gold has been diverging from macro and market data. Our macro-driven gold price indicator (a fair value forecast based on macro inputs like the DXY…
VP Research
Dec 4, 2021
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Gold divergences
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