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Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active.
Jan 29, 2023
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Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
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The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
In the coming decade governments will no longer hide behind the “invisible” hand of the market.
Jan 7, 2023
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The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
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Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition
The Kalecki-Levy profit decomposition is a first principles way to understand the drivers of corporate profit margins using top-down economic flow data
Jul 2, 2024
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Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition
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Echoes of past bubbles
Today’s AI surge, against a backdrop of 500bps of Fed hikes since March 2022, has some uncomfortable echoes with the lead-up to some major historical…
Jun 30, 2023
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Echoes of past bubbles
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Not enough signs of a major market bottom
Unfortunately nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market.
Jun 12, 2022
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Not enough signs of a major market bottom
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The VP TLDR Guide
3-minute summary of the 10 most important VP whitepapers from our “VP Understanding" series.
Jan 7, 2024
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The VP TLDR Guide
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The Keys to the White House 2024
We re-visit an empirical US election framework (Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Whitehouse) as a complementary piece to polling and betting market data for…
Jan 14, 2024
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The Keys to the White House 2024
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The LPPL (Log-Period Power Law) Model: An Essential Guide
This post is an excerpt from “Understanding LPPL” on the Variant Perception portal.
Sep 3, 2023
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The LPPL (Log-Period Power Law) Model: An Essential Guide
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Trading the commodity supercycle intermission
The commodity supercycle intermission is ongoing, but the structural thesis remains in tact (see our original thesis from Oct 2020 here).
Aug 20, 2022
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Trading the commodity supercycle intermission
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Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch
US exceptionalism consensus creates downside risks. The US consumer looks like a paper tiger, while labor hoarding + distorted inventory cycle are…
Jan 21, 2024
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Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch
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A note from Aaran
3 takeaways from my time at Variant Perception
Dec 24, 2023
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A note from Aaran
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The Age of Scarcity Part 3: The Capex Supercycle
An old asset base + large infrastructure spending gap + negative real financing costs (financial repression) = an incoming capex supercycle.
Feb 25, 2023
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The Age of Scarcity Part 3: The Capex Supercycle
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