The Variant Perception Blog

The Variant Perception Blog

Home
Podcast
Notes
Archive
About
Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active.
Jan 29, 2023
12

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
3
The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
In the coming decade governments will no longer hide behind the “invisible” hand of the market.
Jan 7, 2023
16

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
1
Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition
The Kalecki-Levy profit decomposition is a first principles way to understand the drivers of corporate profit margins using top-down economic flow data
Jul 2, 2024
22

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition
Echoes of past bubbles
Today’s AI surge, against a backdrop of 500bps of Fed hikes since March 2022, has some uncomfortable echoes with the lead-up to some major historical…
Jun 30, 2023
1

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Echoes of past bubbles
Not enough signs of a major market bottom
Unfortunately nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market.
Jun 12, 2022
19

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Not enough signs of a major market bottom
The VP TLDR Guide
3-minute summary of the 10 most important VP whitepapers from our “VP Understanding" series.
Jan 7, 2024
24

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
The VP TLDR Guide
1
The Keys to the White House 2024
We re-visit an empirical US election framework (Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Whitehouse) as a complementary piece to polling and betting market data for…
Jan 14, 2024
20

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
The Keys to the White House 2024
1
The LPPL (Log-Period Power Law) Model: An Essential Guide
This post is an excerpt from “Understanding LPPL” on the Variant Perception portal.
Sep 3, 2023
11

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
The LPPL (Log-Period Power Law) Model: An Essential Guide
Trading the commodity supercycle intermission
The commodity supercycle intermission is ongoing, but the structural thesis remains in tact (see our original thesis from Oct 2020 here).
Aug 20, 2022
11

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Trading the commodity supercycle intermission
2
Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch
US exceptionalism consensus creates downside risks. The US consumer looks like a paper tiger, while labor hoarding + distorted inventory cycle are…
Jan 21, 2024
21

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch
A note from Aaran
3 takeaways from my time at Variant Perception
Dec 24, 2023
18

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
A note from Aaran
The Age of Scarcity Part 3: The Capex Supercycle
An old asset base + large infrastructure spending gap + negative real financing costs (financial repression) = an incoming capex supercycle.
Feb 25, 2023
1

Share this post

The Variant Perception Blog
The Variant Perception Blog
The Age of Scarcity Part 3: The Capex Supercycle
© 2025 VP Research Inc.
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share