The Variant Perception Blog

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This is the third post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The third tool below…
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The speed of the surge in real yields over the past month is now comparable to the Taper Tantrum (left chart), and when we decompose the yield surge, it…
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As part of a series of blog posts, we plan to share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The first tool…
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We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity…
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This is the second post in a series where we share the best tools and principles that have helped us understand the business cycle. The second tool…
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The below is an excerpt from one our recent reports, helping clients understand what a yield curve inversion means for their portfolios.‍ The yield…
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Jeremy Grantham's recent piece, Let the wild rumpus begin, argued that the US is in its 4th "superbubble" of the last 100 years and is in its final…
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“We set up Variant Perception to solve our own investing needs. Most investment strategy and economic research we read was highly idiosyncratic and…
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US bank net interest margins were historically very correlated to the yield curve (e.g. 2s10s). However in recent years, the correlation has broken down…
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Last month's US inflation print of 7.5% made headlines even among the non-financial press, and caused money markets to overshoot in pricing an even more…
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With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to rattle global equity markets, we revisit historical analogs of how markets typically behave around wars. The…
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Gold has been diverging from macro and market data. Our macro-driven gold price indicator (a fair value forecast based on macro inputs like the DXY…
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