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Fundamental gold buy signal triggered
On a 6-month+ outlook, we stick with a risk-off asset allocation while cyclical LEIs are negative and our US Recession Signal remains active.
3
Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition
The Kalecki-Levy profit decomposition is a first principles way to understand the drivers of corporate profit margins using top-down economic flow data
The Age of Scarcity Part 1: The inflationary impact of government spending
In the coming decade governments will no longer hide behind the “invisible” hand of the market.
1
Echoes of past bubbles
Today’s AI surge, against a backdrop of 500bps of Fed hikes since March 2022, has some uncomfortable echoes with the lead-up to some major historical…
Not enough signs of a major market bottom
Unfortunately nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market.
The VP TLDR Guide
3-minute summary of the 10 most important VP whitepapers from our “VP Understanding" series.
1
The Keys to the White House 2024
We re-visit an empirical US election framework (Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Whitehouse) as a complementary piece to polling and betting market data for…
1
The LPPL (Log-Period Power Law) Model: An Essential Guide
This post is an excerpt from “Understanding LPPL” on the Variant Perception portal.
Trading the commodity supercycle intermission
The commodity supercycle intermission is ongoing, but the structural thesis remains in tact (see our original thesis from Oct 2020 here).
2
Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch
US exceptionalism consensus creates downside risks. The US consumer looks like a paper tiger, while labor hoarding + distorted inventory cycle are…
A note from Aaran
3 takeaways from my time at Variant Perception
The Age of Scarcity Part 3: The Capex Supercycle
An old asset base + large infrastructure spending gap + negative real financing costs (financial repression) = an incoming capex supercycle.
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