Sitemap - 2024 - The Variant Perception Blog

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China Leading Indicator Watch

Making CapEx Great Again

US Election Cycles

Big Government, Big Business, Big Labor

Opening the Box on Schrodinger's Recession

The How, What, and Why of VP's Asset Allocation Engine

Eurozone Leading Indicator Watch

China - Tradeable bazooka, not yet a real bazooka

US Leading Indicator Watch

China LEI making new lows, US and EZ LEIs still holding up

3 Key Frameworks - VP August 2024 Asset Allocation Call

Understanding VP Central Bank Regime Models

Stylized Post-Crash Patterns After Initial Low

Occam’s Razor to FX: The Cyclical / Structural Framework

G3 divergence: EZ best, China worst, US outlook suits steepeners - VP July G3 Leading Indicator Watch

Which Rate Cuts Will Stick? - VP June EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

Understanding The Kalecki-Levy Corporate Profit Decomposition

US labor market: what's different this time?

Fixed Income Outlook - VP June 2024 Big Picture Discussion

Outliers - VP May EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch

Stocks vs Bonds: Revisited - VP May Macro Snapshot

US Fiscal: Acute or Chronic - VP May 2024 Big Picture Discussion

The Structural Limits of Fiscal Policy

What We Got Right and What We Got Wrong (1Q24)

More leading indicators are rebounding - Excerpt from VP April G3 Leading Indicator Watch

Fiscal outlook - VP April 2024 Big Picture Discussion

What's worked, what hasn't, and where to double down - VP March 2024 Global Macro Trading Discussion

Fiscal: Sisyphus or Hercules - Excerpt from VP February Macro Snapshot

What We Got Right and What We Got Wrong (4Q 2023)

VP March 2024 Big Picture Discussion

Digging into US data anomalies: micro-businesses + tax avoidance - Excerpt from VP February G3 Leading Indicator Watch

VP February 2024 Asset Allocation Discussion

Playing the Game with LPPL

VP February 2024 Big Picture Discussion

Understanding VP Fast Money

Betting on a De-sync - Excerpt from VP December G3 Leading Indicator Watch

The Keys to the White House 2024

The VP TLDR Guide